As southern California braces for worsening wind conditions amid ongoing wildfire devastation, the estimated value of the total damage and economic loss has risen to between $250bn and $275bn, forecaster AccuWeather said today.
24 people are now known to have died and at least 12,300 homes and other structures have been damaged or destroyed by four separate fires burning around Los Angeles that started a week ago on 7 January.
“This is already one of the worst wildfires in California history,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
“Should a large number of additional structures be burned in the coming days, it may become the worst wildfire in modern California history based on the number of structures burned and economic loss.”
Most expensive real estate in the country
The worst of the fires are burning in an area from Santa Monica to Malibu, home to some of the most expensive real estate in the country, with median home values over $2m, the company said.
It added that the latest loss estimate for the fires surpasses the loss numbers for the entire 2020 wildfire season.
If the estimates are accurate, the losses in Los Angeles will surpass the $225bn to $250bn estimate for damages and economic loss after last year’s Hurricane Helene.
Deadly Santa Ana winds
The biggest fire, named Palisades, has so far burned 23,713 acres, and is just 14% contained, California’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire) says.
The next biggest, Eaton, covering 14,117 acres, is 33% contained.
But another round of dangerous Santa Ana winds are expected across Southern California from Monday to Wednesday of this week, AccuWeather forecasters warn.
‘Prime conditions for wildfire ignition and spread’
The Santa Ana winds are strong, dry winds that move westwards across southern California from the desert to the coast, causing extremely low humidity, Dr. Jonathan Eden, associate professor of climate and environmental change at UK’s Coventry University, told GCR in a briefing note.
“These winds are a fairly common phenomenon at this time of year, and are known for their hot and dry characteristics and strong gusts, prime conditions for wildfire ignition and spread,” he said.
“They are driven initially by the development of a large area of high pressure over the dry interior of the western United States, becoming drier as they move southwards and eastwards before accelerating and drying further still as they’re funnelled towards the southern California coastline.
“It is a cruel twist of fate that the extreme weather conditions that fanned the flames are now obstructing the efforts of the relief crews. It is nigh impossible to contain large wildfires in the face of such monumental wind gusts.”
Driven by climate change
Eden said that with up-to-date weather records and state-of-the-art climate models, climate scientists are now able to estimate to what extent climate change is altering the nature of extreme fire weather events.
“Current research shows that such conditions are occurring more often and with greater severity as a result of climate change driven by a global rise in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases,” he said.
“The impacts are being felt in almost all vegetated parts of the world. This includes regions that were not previously considered fire-prone, such northern India where wildfire has recently emerged as a critical hazard.
“By contrast, wildfires have long been commonplace in California but, as we’ve seen this week, building resilience to these kinds of events remains a monumental challenge.”
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