Half a million more workers will be needed to meet US’ construction needs

ABC estimates that if the labour gap is not closed, employment costs will increase, creating inflation and reducing the number of projects that can be carried out profitably.

The organisation’s model uses historical data available from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labour Statistics, and assumes that 3,550 jobs are created with every billion dollars spent.

It assumes that large datacentres and industrial projects will absorb much of the available work force in many states, although this has been called into question by Chinese AI service DeepSeek, which has shown that AI’s demand for computing power and electricity could be much less than was thought.

It also predicts that demand will be stimulated by falling interest rates.

Anirban Basu, ABC’s chief economist, said: “We still have a long way to go to shore up the talent pipeline. The data on the number of young people choosing a career in construction suggests that employing practical technology and innovation in educational programmes and on jobsites helps maximise the productivity and efficiency of the construction workforce.

“There are also factors that could render this model overly conservative, meaning worker shortages could be more severe than predicted in 2025.

“Although the consensus forecast has construction spending increasing by less than 3% in 2025, that same forecast has underestimated growth by a significant margin during each of the past three years. If inflation dissipates in coming months, borrowing costs will subside and construction volumes will increase.

“Faster-than-expected immigration over the past few years has also bolstered labour supply, and potential changes to immigration policy will likely constrain worker availability.”

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