Management consultant Bain & Company predicts a recovery in some of Europe’s biggest construction markets in 2025 after a two-year slump over 2023-24.
Its analysis covers the UK, the Nordics, France, Germany and Italy.
It says growth will come from residential, sustainable office, and infrastructure work, noting that demand will grow from “a very low starting position”.
“The construction recovery will be fuelled by structural pent-up demand from the protracted period of declining activity as well as structural long-term drivers of demand from continuing urbanisation, requirements for more affordable housing and more sustainable, efficient offices, and the ongoing need for investment in infrastructure renewal and modernisation,” said partner Adrien Bron.
Bain expects the Nordics to grow fastest in 2025-2027, with compound annual growth of between 3% and 5% in the period.
Close behind is the UK, with growth of 2%–4% predicted in the period.
Other predictions are 1.5%–3.5% growth in France, 1%–3% in Italy, and 0.5%–2.5% in Germany.
These figures contrast with 2023-2024, where Bain calculates growth shrank at a compound rate of 6.5%–8.5% in France, 4%–6% in Italy, 3%–5% in the Nordics, 1.5–3.5% in Germany, and 1%–3% in the UK.
Here’s Bain’s breakdown of forecasted sector-specific compound annual growth rates by territory in 2025-27:
Nordics growth:
• Residential: 6.5%–8.5%
• Office: 2.5%–4.5%
• Infrastructure: 2.5%–4.5%
UK growth:
• Residential: 3%–5%
• Office: 1.5%–3.5%
• Infrastructure: 2%–4%
France growth:
• Residential: 5%–7%
• Office: 0.5%–2.5%
• Infrastructure: 0.5–2.5%
Italy growth:
• Residential: -2% (contraction)
• Office: 1%–3%
• Infrastructure: 2.5%–4.5%
Germany growth
• Residential: 0%-2%
• Office: 1%–3%
• Infrastructure: by 1.5%-3.5%
